Sunday, November 16, 2008

.ppt that interests me

BCC to: all that i know
From Hee Teck
 
Attached is a presentation from Sequoia to all their companies.
 
Sequoia is a Venture Capital which funded companies like Apple, Google and Yahoo.

One of the views on this presentation
 
Hee Teck's thoughts -
Most "impactful" slide - death spirial. Many companies immediately come to mind - IE AIG, GM, and in local market - Ferrochina etc... just to mention a few... and the 2nd slide brings one of my thoughts back to mind - "Bulls make money, Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
 
Already knew it will be bad one year before, but this markets has gone beyond what i can imagine. Forward-looking, i think there isn't light beyond the tunnel yet, as there are many potential dangers ahead, like when one is healthy, everything is fine; when one undergo a major surgery, there is a chance of complications... a high chance of complications in this case.
 
Stay positive and healthy
Hee Teck

--
Courage is not the absence of fear, but something more important than fear

http://dreamerziv.blogspot.com/  - DreamerZ Investment Views
http://heeteck.blogspot.com/ - DreamerZ Personal Blog

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Jim Rogers says get rid of dollars, buy gold/silver

Jim Rogers says get rid of dollars, buy gold/silver

Posted: 13-Nov-2008
Source: BI-ME , Author: BI-ME staff

INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor Jim Rogers believes the recent dollar gains are temporary and are not based on fundamentals.

“The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary,” Rogers recently told a group of private bank clients.

“Within a year you’ll have to get rid of the dollar,” he said.

Rogers has spent a career being one step ahead of mainstream investment thinking. Amongst his many accomplishments, Rogers was co-founder with George Soros of Quantum Fund. During his ten years with the fund, the portfolio gained more than 4,000%, while the S&P rose less than 50%.

All hedge funds were short on the dollar, Rogers said, but because there has been a rapid increase in the dollar’s value against other currencies, fund managers want to buy them now.

“This is temporary, Rogers says. “Fundamentally it is a drama.”

Rogers also said US government bonds are extremely overvalued. “They are “the world’s last bubble.”

The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive “zombie banks” that should be allowed to fail, he said

The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s. “It’s 18 years later and their stock market is 75% or 80% below what it was 18 years ago,” he added.

“I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that’s why I’m long short-term government bonds in the US, but shorting long-term government bonds because it’s not going to help, it’s going to add to inflation.”

Rogers admits that silver has been particularly battered down, 35% this year, and perhaps that is why he thinks this precious metal will outperform gold as investors turn to the metal as a hedge against inflation.

“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers recently said. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”

Gold may drop as central banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sell the metal to raise cash, said Rogers, who correctly predicted in April 2006 that gold would reach US$1,000 an ounce. The IMF in May ratified a plan that included proposals to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold to reduce a budget deficit.

“The IMF has gigantic amounts of gold. Maybe gold is going to go down for a while. If gold does go down, I’m going to buy more,” Rogers said.
 
Hee Teck

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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

OCBC Q3 net profit down 13% on bad debt charges

OCBC profit down, will the smallest bank throw a bomb? things are certainly getting interesting...
 
OCBC Q3 net profit down 13% on bad debt charges

By ANGELA TAN

SINGAPORE - Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation reported on Wednesday a net profit of $402 million (US$272 million) for third quarter 2008, 13 per cent lower than a year ago.

Excluding tax refunds from both periods, core net profit fell 7 per cent to $396 million. The decline was largely due to increased allowances which offset growth in operating profit driven by strong net interest income.

Net allowances for the quarter amounted to $156 million, substantially higher than the $39 million in Q307. The allowances were mainly for the Group's holdings of debt securities which suffered losses following the unprecedented upheavals in global credit markets.

Related article:

Click here for OCBC's news release

Core operating businesses delivered steady results, as reflected in the 5 per cent year-on-year increase in operating profit before allowances.

Net interest income grew 21 per cent, underpinned by healthy loan growth and better interest margins. Non-interest income held up well under challenging market conditions, registering a modest decline of 4 per cent, as weaker stockbroking, wealth management and investment income were largely compensated by stronger contributions from the insurance business and other fee-based activities.

Compared with Q208, the Group's core operating profit and core net profit increased by 16 per cent and 4 per cent respectively, in spite of the higher allowances. The profit growth was driven mainly by stronger insurance and foreign exchange income. Insurance contributions improved significantly compared to a weak first half performance, as the decline in long term interest rates in Singapore and rise in government bond prices during the third quarter boosted the Singapore non-participating fund profits of Great Eastern Holdings (GEH).

For the nine months ended Sept 30 2008 (9M08), the Group's reported net profit fell 12 per cent to $1,449 million, while core net profit declined 15 per cent to $1,237 million (excluding $174 million divestment gains and $38 million tax refunds). Robust net interest income growth of 23 per cent was offset by lower insurance income, reduced gains on investment securities and losses on trading securities, while allowances were significantly higher at $203 million. Operating expenses rose 16 per cent due to increases in staff costs, business promotion expenses and costs associated with the Group's continued overseas expansion. GEH's core net profit contribution to the Group fell to $113 million in 9M08 from $332 million in 9M07. Annualised return on equity for the nine months, based on core net profit, was 11.6 per cent, down from 14.1 per cent for 9M07.

Net interest income rose 21 per cent year-on-year to $684 million in Q308. Customer loans grew by 20 per cent from a year ago and 4 per cent from the previous quarter, contributed mainly by increased corporate and SME loans in Singapore as well as overseas markets. Net interest margin improved by 11 basis points to 2.18 per cent on lower cost of funds and improvement in loan spreads.

Compared with Q208, net interest income grew 1 per cent. Net interest margin narrowed by six basis points due mainly to lower average yields on the investment securities portfolio, particularly for Singapore government bonds.

For the nine months period, net interest income grew 23 per cent to $2,000 million, and net interest margin improved by 12 basis points to 2.20 per cent.

OCBC continues to maintain a strong capital position and a solid deposit funding base, which are vital attributes for banks given the current global financial crisis. The Group's Tier 1 capital increased to $14 billion as at Sept 30 2008, following the successful issues of $2.5 billion of Tier 1 preference shares during the third quarter. Its Tier 1 ratio of 14.4 per cent ranks among the highest in the world, and is well above the regulatory minimum of 6 per cent.

The Group has a stable and growing deposit base, with customer deposits growing by 11 per cent year-on-year to $95 billion as at Sept 30 2008.

 
 
Hee Teck
Credit Review
DBS Bank Ltd
Fax: 6878 9954
DID: 6223 2653
DBS. Living, Breathing Asia
 

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