Monday, June 30, 2008

Trichet Sides With ECB's Inflation Hawks, Risking Weaker Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBWoNIJjhNaw&refer=home
Rates used to be the one size fits all solution to problems like these decades ago... recently greenspan noted that it was not as useful as it should be towards his career at Fed.

During Oct2007, i noted that rates is not the solution for Fed to get out of the mess, i still think so now... and it applies to the ECB in this case too...

THe question is, if rates and money supply is not the solution, then what is?
Good question isnt it? Your views are welcomed.

Hee Teck

Sunday, June 29, 2008

S&P 500, USO and weekly, commentary by Hee Teck

S&P 500 downtrend

USO daily chart range bounded

USO weekly volume and price divergence

S&P500 is in a downtrend, nearing bearzone, taking no help from fed, whom signalled that they are not ready to increase interest rates yet. Near term economic indicators are not going to be good, with Auto sales definately bad, PMI down, along with all the rest, most notable is the EMPLOYMENT RATE. Last month gave us a sharply higher rating, expecting to revise down this time round.

Any reading above 5.3%(last month was 5.5%) is bad. And no one expects it to be better anyway...

Notes on Oil(USO), daily looks to have broken above the range bound, and on first hand seems looking to go much higher, but with the divergence in weekly chart @ volume vs price, one will need to take note of that moving forward on oil.

Then again, oil is a bubble with fundamentals... While oil looks to be heading downwards, US economic indicators looks likely to be weak, bringing USD down with it, supporting oil's bubble... In a bubble, anything can happen... the best is to stayout...

Exciting week ahead, with oil likely to head down, Dow nearing bear market, with the tagline, "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN", Iran and Israel not helping with the tensions, China not helping with the minimum wages increase.

Other than the above events, the thing to look out for is the ECB rates(4th July if not wrong). Any rate hike is much expected, and is also expected to do much harm to the US economy and USD. Although much should be blamed on the US Fed, not ECB.

I called for ECB to be the leading indicator after much divergences in movement from Fed to show their disagreement in views, ECB now holds the key to the destruction of USD as world's currency. Fed is now being held by the nose as ECB will not agree with Fed and ECB is in control. A lot of talks are now with ECB trying to write down the divergences with Fed, and Fed somewhat agreewith verbally with ECB(refusing to admit mistake) but that will not work as actions will prove otherwise.

Tensions in the currencies between Euro and USD has somewhat reached near breaking point, and ECB is not likely to give way to Fed for inflation. This "can" be the turning point. Lets see.

Hee Teck

Beijing city hikes minimum wage as inflation soars

This looks like hell going to break lose in China.
The worst thing about inflation is rising prices, followed by rising wages, then rising prices, and wages in that sequence, over and over again... And rising petrol prices = rising prices, and believe me, if oil continues to rise, this will not be the last petrol prices increase, and the action to hike minimum wages will create massive inflation, and the spiraling action to take place...

One only needs to take a look at vietnam...

Olympics... What will it bring for China and Beijing?

Beijing city hikes minimum wage as inflation soars
Posted: 29 June 2008 0258 hrs

Chinese workers plant flowers outside the Olympic Stadium, known locally as the 'Birds Nest' in Beijing

BEIJING : China's capital Beijing is to raise its minimum salary by 10 percent in a bid to help the worst-off cope with rising inflation, state media said Saturday.

Beginning from July 1, the minimum monthly salary for city employees will rise from 730 to 800 yuan (106 to 116 dollars), the Xinhua news agency reported, citing city authorities.

The move is aimed at offsetting recent price increases in rice, vegetable oil and pork, an unnamed Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau official was quoted as saying.

Anger over rising prices has been a frequent source of social unrest in China.

A recent central bank survey found that 45 percent of urban Chinese believe prices are currently "too high".

China's inflation hit 7.7 percent in May, easing only slightly from 8.5 percent in April and still lingering at 12-year highs.

Beijing this month announced it will hike retail petrol and diesel prices by as much as 18 percent.
Hee Teck

Friday, June 27, 2008

Buffett Says He's Concerned About U.S. `Stagflation'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amCCz4wNzVCE

Remember i said that inflation will start sprinting once Fed pause rates?

The comment buffett made is not without logic and the timing cannot be better... Fed had just paused their rates... We will see money flowing back to US and that will give US hell in terms of inflation... Mark my words... Buffett has backed me up with his comments...

I could be wrong, but i certainly do not think so at this point of time.

Hee Teck

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Harvard, Buffett Have Bad News for Asia Bulls: William Pesek

If you look back on why i say Ben has fought against recession at Asian's expense, this article actually supports what i was thinking and strengthens it further...

esp in bold... Well... I'm glad i saw it early... and my classes in EMBA probably helped much in that aspect.

Hee Teck

Harvard, Buffett Have Bad News for Asia Bulls: William Pesek

Commentary by William Pesek

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- ``The worst is over.'' One hears some variation of this view constantly when traveling around Asia.

It's a comforting one, predicated on the idea that the U.S. economy will avoid the recession that markets have priced in for some time. It's also a view that could be in for some serious revision as the year unfolds, and not in a good way.

The latest sign comes from a Harvard University report. Growing foreclosures and tighter lending standards are creating an environment that ``is shaping up to be the worst in a generation,'' Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies said on June 23.

``The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course,'' said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the center.

The U.S. market seems likely to remain mired in a recession. And as Retsinas pointed out, housing markets historically recover only after an economy contracts and prices fall enough to improve affordability.

That's a bigger problem for Asia than many investors may want to admit.

There's much relief that Asia is holding its ground as the U.S. economy slows and credit-market woes humble Wall Street's biggest names. While asset markets are heading lower from Tokyo to Jakarta and Shanghai to Mumbai, healthy economic growth has confounded the pessimists -- so far.

Knock-On Effects

The knock-on effects are coming, just more stealthily than many expect. Asia is unlikely to get off easy even if the U.S. skirts a recession. The region hasn't decoupled from America as much as some would say.

The worst-case scenario -- a prolonged U.S. decline -- could be devastating, particularly at a time when record oil and food prices are hurting Asian households. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett laid it out in a June 25 Bloomberg interview. He's unsure when the U.S. will recover.

``It's not going to be tomorrow, it's not going to be next month, and it may not even be next year,'' said the chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The idea that Asia will continue to display an impressive immunity to U.S. events ignores how dependent China is on the American economy. It also ignores how reliant Asia is on China's 10 percent growth. Slowing U.S. demand will chip away at that country's export-driven expansion exponentially.

China's Limits

China is one of several Asian economies with negative real interest rates. With its annual inflation above the central bank's benchmark lending rate, China would be hard-pressed to stimulate growth with lower borrowing costs or increased government spending.

Monetary quandaries abound in Asia. Bank of Japan officials, for example, are making it clear interest-rate deliberations have become increasingly challenging over the last two months.

``At the time of the June meeting, both downside and upside risks had risen compared with when we met in May,'' BOJ policy board member Seiji Nakamura said yesterday in Asahikawa, Japan.

The credit crisis that began with U.S. subprime loans is just one force crimping U.S. spending. A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows most Americans are feeling the pain from rising gasoline prices and many are tightening their belts. Seven in 10 of those surveyed said higher gas prices have caused them ``financial hardship.''

Export Woes

That may mean less spending on cars, flat-screen televisions, cellular phones, name-brand clothing items and other goods manufactured in Asia. With U.S. consumers accounting for 70 percent of gross domestic product, any pullback would have an outsized impact on global economies. Housing is arguably the key to all of this.

The U.S. will expand 1.4 percent in 2008, the weakest performance since 2001, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. growth may be cut by a half to a full percentage point if consumers spend less and save more, according to Deutsche Bank AG economists. For Asia, that is decidedly bad news.

So is Harvard's housing report and Buffett's concern that the U.S. is heading for stagflation. Rising home prices and easy access to credit have been the major drivers of U.S. growth in recent years. If U.S. housing remains weak, Asia's export- dependent economies are particularly vulnerable.

Here, recent comments by Federal Reserve officials are both good and bad for Asia.

The Fed this week left its benchmark rate at 2 percent, saying ``uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.'' Further rate cuts seem unlikely, something that could disappoint some investors. The specter of continued rate moves supported optimism about Asia's export markets.

Yet easy Fed policies also cause problems in Asia. Much of the liquidity that U.S. officials create ends up in Asian markets, increasing so-called hot-money flows. That has made it harder for Asian central banks to control money supply and inflation. Taking a longer-term view, an end to Fed rate cuts isn't a bad thing.

The catch is that with Asia's most important customer in trouble, the region's growth outlook is dimming. Here, the U.S. housing market is more of a linchpin than many in Asia think.

Hee Teck

Thursday, June 26, 2008

China out to learn from America's blunders now

You know, it is always easier to criticise others than ourselves... We know that very well...

By FRANK CHING

WHEN China first launched its economic development programme 30 years ago, it realised that it would have to learn from the West, in particular from the United States, while Chinese officials attempted to run a market economy.

Now, some Chinese may feel that they are ready to graduate. In the recently concluded round of high-level talks held in Annapolis, Maryland, dubbed the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED), one official commented that in the past, China learned positive lessons from the United States but now it was learning from American mistakes.

The official, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central People's Bank of China, alluding to the sub-prime crisis, said that this was the first time that China needed to learn from American mistakes, not just its successes.

Unlike previous sessions, there was little lecturing of the Chinese this time around to allow their currency, the yuan, to appreciate faster. Instead, Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, acknowledged that Beijing had allowed its currency to rise more than 20 per cent since 2005 and saw this as one measure of the success of the economic dialogue.

This time, it was the Chinese who were critical of the way the Americans were managing their currency. Mr Zhou, the central bank governor, charged that the continuing drop in the value of the dollar was causing price rises around the world of such things as oil, food and other commodities. In fact, the poor state of the American economy may be causing the Chinese to reassess the extent to which they should take the United States as a model.

While US officials warned their Chinese counterparts not to let American regulatory failures delay the deregulation and opening of their own markets, Beijing will inevitably take into account what they see as the failures of 'the American way' of doing things.

In fact, one Chinese official, Liao Min, deputy director of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), last month criticised what he called the lack of oversight of financial markets on the part of Western governments.

'I feel the Western consensus on the relation between the market and the government should be reviewed,' he told the Financial Times. 'In practice, they tend to overestimate the power of the market and overlook the regulatory role of the government, and this warped conception is at the root of the sub-prime crisis.'

Other Chinese officials, too, have been critical of the United States. Sun Zhenyu, the Chinese ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO), earlier this month called on Washington to take action to stabilise the dollar, which has fallen sharply over the past year.

'As a major currency for international reserve,' he said, 'the dramatic depreciation of the dollar has led to shrinking national reserves of many countries and reduced social welfare. China hopes that the United States could take quick and targeted action to stabilise the US dollar.'

Beijing's insistence on full equality with Washington was reflected in its response to the demand that US inspectors be stationed in China to ensure the safety of exported food and other products. China agreed - but only on condition that Chinese inspectors be stationed in the United States to check on the quality of American exports, too.

Despite Chinese criticisms of the United States, Vice- Premier Wang Qishan, leader of the Chinese delegation, made it clear in a dinner address that China would continue to reform and open up. 'Our history has taught us that China has no future if we do not carry out reform and opening up,' he said.

Mr Wang called the latest session a 'complete success' and said the dialogue should continue after a new administration takes office next year.

One achievement of the latest round was an agreement by the US and China to negotiate an investment treaty. The United States wants China to open up financial services, such as insurance and credit cards, to foreign investment. China, on its part, would like the United States not to 'politicize' economic transactions, such as frustrating the attempt by a Chinese company to buy the American oil company Unocal in the name of national security.

The next session of the SED is scheduled for December in Beijing but, by then, the Bush administration would be on its way out.

It would be wise for whoever wins the presidential election in November to continue to hold these high-level economic talks since they provide an opportunity for the world's biggest industrialised country to talk to the world's most populous country about issues that matter not only to them, but to the rest of the world as well.

The writer is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator

Hee Teck

Markets' lack of inflation experience seen troubling

An interesting article that highlights the lack of expertise in inflation handling, which is critical if u remember that the last time the globe faced such a phenomenon was 1970s. Perhaps more reading on inflation history and what it could do to us will be helpful for the next few years of trading/investing.

(LONDON) Alex Patelis, a 37-year old economist at Merrill Lynch, suggested to a group of financial journalists recently that it would be hard for them to write about inflation because they had never really experienced it. That was not entirely true - a couple of those present remembered paying those double-digit 1970s price rises - but the point was taken.

For many people in the finance industry, from journalists to economists, traders and analysts, inflation is a textbook concept - and that could have serious implications for how accurately markets are able to price financial assets.

It is, after all, more than 30 years since US president Gerald Ford was sporting WIN (Whip Inflation Now) badges and only a little less than that since Paul Volcker was leading a Federal Reserve crackdown on the US money supply.

The other major threat currently facing global economies and financial markets is a recession. This, again, is not one for the younger whippersnappers. An analyst or trader would need to be 40 or more to have worked through the last prolonged US recession, assuming he or she started work aged around 22.

The actual average age for people in the finance industry is hard to come by, especially given new sensitivities among human resources departments and recruiters about age discrimination.

But a simple glance around Wall Street, London's Canary Wharf or Frankfurt suggests the large majority of bank and investment professionals would find inflation and - to a lesser extent - recession unfamiliar phenomena.

'I'd be surprised if the average age was over 40,' said Andrew Clare, professor of asset management at Cass Business School in London.

He said that his own financial markets students, generally in their mid-20s, were taken aback to learn of eras when wages chased prices in double-digit leaps and interest rates soared after them.

Beyond the opportunity for older industry types to assert their superior experience, the bigger issue is whether this age deficit is having any impact on asset prices as inflationary pressures rise.

Despite policymakers from the Fed to the European Central Bank to the Bank of England warning about coming inflation, for example, expectations in the markets remain relatively low.

US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or Tips, are currently suggesting market expectations of inflation at less than 2.5 per cent. Euro zone equivalents are roughly the same.

This would seem pretty low given a record oil price that has nearly doubled in the past 12 months, gold up more than 35 per cent and food commodities such as corn soaring 78 per cent.

The yield on cash bonds - 4.6 per cent for 10-year euro zone government paper and 4.2 per cent for US Treasuries - are also lower than a coming inflationary threat might suggest.

Prof Clare reckons there could be a couple of reasons for this, one of which is the age of market players. 'They are a) too young to have any inflation experience or b) they have put faith in monetary policy regimes that have proliferated since the early 90s.'

Central banks in general are committed to fighting inflation and some, such as the European Central Bank, have a target, in this case 2 per cent or slightly less. The Fed, however, has raised eyebrows by cutting its main interest rate to just 2 per cent in a move critics say is favouring the need for growth over the inflation danger.

While not having experience in something does not, of course, rule out the ability to handle it, there is evidence that it can affect financial decision making.

James Montier, a behavioural finance specialist and strategist at Societe Generale, says that people stick with what they know. 'One of the huge problems we encounter is that people are always overweight their experience relative to historical data.'

In this way, he said, bond investors did not buy in for a long time to the idea of disinflation in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the eventual trigger for a long rally.

Part of a famously bearish investment team, Mr Montier now says that investors may be too comfortable about the impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and its fallout. 'No one has really experienced the bursting of the credit bubble. That makes it difficult for people to work out what it is going to be like.'

Veterans of financial markets, meanwhile, could be forgiven for looking at the current inflation levels and wondering what it is all about.

Mike Lenhoff, the chief strategist at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin, began his finance industry career in the mid-1970s. 'It is just not that serious at the moment,' he said.

But Mr Lenhoff also knows - as younger market players, perhaps do not - that things can change quickly. 'If history is anything to go by, everybody has underestimated how far a trend can go.' - Reuters

Hee Teck

Buffett sees sub-prime opportunities

This shows a undervaluation of subprime, an end to the mess.

Not many ppl will see it, the people who does will benefit much.

NEW YORK - Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, sees some opportunities for investing in the sub-prime mortgage business, he said in an interview on Wednesday.

Mr Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway had already made some sub-prime investments through its Clayton Homes manufactured housing unit.

Mr Buffett, who is famous for investing in businesses in beaten-down industries, said he also sees indirect investments in this area through a municipal bond insurer Berkshire set up earlier this year.

As he wades in, others are sure to follow. Some already have - giant bond fund Pacific Management Co, a unit of Allianz SE, and Swiss insurer Zurich Financial Services are among those trawling through distressed, sub-prime assets, looking for bargain price opportunities.

'We have bought some sub-prime paper in the open market, as people have wanted to sell portfolios,' Mr Buffett said of the investments Clayton Homes has made to date. Other investments are possible, he added.

'We listen to anything we hear about,' said Mr Buffett. 'If it is big and unusual, and carries the proper premium, we listen.' And he said Berkshire's monoline insurer may indirectly invest in some distressed areas, including sub-prime.

'Some of that may be a factor in what we are doing in bond insurance - it is an indirect fall-out from that,' he said.

Mr Buffett said last month that he was generally hoping to make big investment deals, 'the bigger the better'.

The sub-prime mortgage crisis has been the main driver of the credit market turmoil that has gripped worldwide markets since last year, and has led financial institutions around the globe to record losses and write-downs exceeding US$300 billion.

Zurich Financial Services, which largely skirted these risky investments in the run up to the crisis, is now looking at investing in such distressed assets, said chief investment officer Martin Senn.

'That is one asset class we are looking at, particularly indirectly through hedge fund (investments),' said Mr Senn, in an interview earlier this month.

And Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, with about US$128 billion in assets under management, has recently stepped up its holding of risky mortgage debt. -- REUTERS

Hee Teck

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Potential Rebound in China

Target bottom is about 2650.

Hee Teck

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL2153473620080622
the bottom line - If it is the speculators, raising output will cause them to die down... you dun expect speculators to collect oil right? If demand is outstriping supply, raising output will lower the price, that's basic.

For OPEC it is simple. Raise the output and analyse later.
Failure to do so will throw more questions on their ability to raise output as the cause, rather than speculators or higher demand.

Hee Teck

Saturday, June 21, 2008

UBS' core values in the spotlight

I thought that this one is something every person working in the corporate sector can, and need to look at...

'UBS' core values in the spotlight

By GENEVIEVE CUA

GOING back to basics, says UBS chairman Peter Kurer, is key to UBS regaining top position. A cornerstone of that, as he tells his Asia-Pacific staff in his recent Singapore visit, is a fresh focus on the bank's 'core values'.

Here is some insight into the core values, as articulated by Mr Kurer to over 500 staff at a 'town hall' meeting recently.

Empowerment, responsibility and accountability: 'Each of you has significant power. But each of you should also accept that there is significant accountability that comes with it. At every level, with every function, we should create absolute clarity of what the powers and the respective accountabilities are. I have seen far too many ambiguities in the system.'

Leadership: 'Leadership entails change and helping others to change. Please build on what we have so carefully put together over many years, but when you see opportunities to improve things, strive to push quickly and firmly to change our business for the better.'

Simplicity: 'I have seen too many situations and processes in this firm which are overly complicated. I have seen too many meetings attended by people who could have been doing more productive things. Involve those who can really contribute and can take decisions and keep things simple and clear.'

Determination and closure: 'I have seen too many projects, too many processes, too many good intentions which have never been implemented or concluded. Let's make it our ambition to bring everything that we start to a closure within the set time, or, if we think it no longer makes sense, abandon it.'

Alignment: 'Healthy, open and constructive discussion is important in our day-to-day work but if we dispute strategy and our main purposes continuously, even at high level, we inject poison into the system, which has the potential to be fatal.'

Integrity: 'We should adhere to the highest ethical standards and accept no behaviour that risks damaging our reputation. We must not cut corners or undermine regulatory or policy requirements.'

No silos: 'This is a joint mission. Our clients are clients of UBS, not a division or a person. So please increase levels of cooperation and communication at all levels.'

Hee Teck

Friday, June 20, 2008

India's inflation rate surges to 11.05%, at 13-year peak

India, with double digits inflation, just stepped into the hollows of inflation.

Hee Teck

NEW DELHI - India's annual inflation rate accelerated to 11.05 per cent, its highest level in 13 years, according to data on Friday, piling pressure on the government as general elections loom.

Inflation jumped by more than two percentage points to hit 11.05 per cent for the week ended June 7 from 8.75 per cent a week earlier, the official figures showed, stoking expectations of further monetary tightening to tame prices.

The increase was driven by a sharp increase in state-set fuel and cooking gas prices announced earlier this month as well as another rise in food costs.

The new rate incorporated for the first time the increase in fuel prices aimed at stemming huge oil company losses caused by surging global crude prices.

The rise shocked analysts who had forecast that inflation would be around 9.8 per cent and was a heavy blow to the government, which desperately wants to tame prices, fearing a voter backlash in national elections due by May 2009.

The Congress party, which heads the national coalition, has suffered a string of state poll defeats with inflation, which has hit India's teeming poor the hardest, blamed as a key culprit.

The inflation figures hit shares, which slumped after the data was announced and were trading down 2.09 per cent or 315.34 points at 14,772,62 points as investors feared more interest rate rises that could hit company profits and slow the economy.

India's economy grew 9 per cent in the past fiscal year, second only to China among big economies, but some economists expect expansion to slow to 7 per cent or lower this year as a result of monetary tightening.

The data came a week after the central bank hiked its leading lending rate, known as the repo rate, by a of a quarter percentage point to 8.00 per cent, a six-year high, the latest in a series of aggressive anti-inflation steps.

Public anger has been mounting over rising prices, and in particular over the fuel price hike.

India's truckers have threatened a nationwide strike from July 2, a protest that would pull four million vehicles off the road, disrupting commercial shipments.

Analysts have said the government had little left in its fiscal arsenal to fight inflation - it has already banned exports of staple foods like rice to boost supplies and check inflation.

They also said India is a victim of global forces.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has forecast inflation globally in 2008 will be the fastest in seven years due to surging international commodity prices and a doubling in oil prices in the past year. -- AFP

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Roach : The new stagflation: an Asian export

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7957366-387c-11dd-8aed-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

the title is pretty misleading if one do not read the article. Sure stagflation, if it comes, will be caused by asia, as the role of food producer. But one must remember that stagflation is the combination of High Inflation and Low Economic Growth.

Low Economic growth is caused by lower consumption in the US, hit by the housing crisis that lead to a credit squeeze, hitting companies with it, spread in various degree to the rest of the globe.

Higher inflation is simply caused by more money chasing fewer goods, and the "more money" is none more than Fed setting rates lower than one can believe, and allowing it to flow out of USA into the rest of the world. That pretty much explains the lack of inflationary pressure on USA until recently. Again, it was only recently that US shows inflationary pressures when Asia show signs of not able to withstand the amount of money flow from US, causing double digits CPIs to Vietnam, Indonesia, and now, India, pretty soon China.

They are the countries with highest poverty, where food make up most of their spending.

One only needs to look at the video of Ben to know that he is only concern about US's Economy, with no regards to the rest of the world. His standpoint is that US must survive, the rest do not make a difference, not China, not India not Europe. If his actions is at the cost of the Asia, so be it. He simply do not care. And what we are seeing now is more or less a consequence of his actions.

Being export oriented countries in Asia, the tendency to take on US money flow is too great, making their export attractive to others, making it a big part of their economy. This is causing crazy inflation levels. Simply look at Vietnam. China wont be spared. India just step into the hollows.

From this point of view, it is not impossible that hyperinflation starts somewhere in Asia, spreading to the rest of the world.

Can this trend be stopped?

YES, if US raises interest rates soon. It will reduce the flow of money to Asia, drop in prices of commodities, energy, and food. It will likely bring recession to US, which Ben obviously do not want.

NO, if US carries on with self-interest. They want to wait till their economy recovers sufficiently to take on higher rates, and bid their time. Prices may spiral out of control and hit the rest of the globe in the end.

Important factors - ECB's interest rates is most critical factor - Fed will not want the gap to be unmanageable, explained by the recent turnaround in saying that they are looking to stop inflation, following ECB.

We are indeed in an age of turbulence.

My view point: ECB will raise rates soon. ECB has not acted in line with Fed in recent times, has no reason to do so now. With the rise of Europe interest rates, Fed will be under pressure. Lets see how they react then. My earlier view is the Fed will raise rates in no more than 3 meetings.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

My personal Favourite patterns to play

‘WV’ Bottom or Triple Bottom

A Triple Bottom or ‘WV’ Bottom is where the market makes either a third bottom slightly above the previous two bottoms, or three bottoms around the same level. It is safe to buy once the market has moved above the second top of the ‘W’.

‘MA’ or Triple Top

This occurs when a market makes 3 tops near the same level. Often the 2^nd and 3^rd tops will be slightly lower. (In Elliott terms, Waves A and C of the following correction retracing near 100% of Wave 1 of the decline? Or a corrective triangle?) When made at tops after a large advance, ‘MA’ tops can signal the start of a major decline. It is safest to sell once the market breaks under the last bottom, whether that is under the low of the ‘A’ or under the low of the ‘M’.

By the way, China Charts are looking at WV.... recent consecutive falls form the left wing of W, recent sharp rise form the 2nd leg... oil spike from china govt formed the 3rd leg, today, the china market is forming the fourth leg.

Next, we wait for the fourth leg to complete and patient for the v, which creates the huge buy signal.

Key area to break looks like 3200 on the charts, however, that chart will only show on the hourly chart, not the daily chart, which may only show 2 red and white candles alternatively. I do not have the hourly chart though... anyone care to share their SSEC hourly charts?

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Some technical learnings - simple

For your learning.

Cheers

Hee Teck

Single ‘A’ or Sharp Top

Gann said that after a prolonged advance or at the end of a bull trend, a market could often make a single, sharp top with only small reactions lasting, perhaps, 2 to 10 bars. This is followed by a sharp decline. It is safe to sell on the subsequent rally or secondary rally (a lower high, or Wave 2 or Wave B). More or safer positions can be added once the market breaks under the last leg of the "A" or the bottom of the first sharp decline.

‘M’ Top or Double Top

After a substantial advance where the market makes a top, reacts for several bars, then rallies again to around the same level, an ‘M’ top or Double Top is formed. (This agrees with several Elliott terms such a Waves A and C hitting near the same level in a Flat Correction, or Wave 5 hitting near the top of Wave 4 in a Truncated Fifth Wave.) When the market falls below the low of the ‘M’ it is safe to go short.

‘W’ Bottom or Double Bottom

A ‘W’ Bottom or Double Bottom forms when a market makes a bottom, rallies for several bars, declines and makes a bottom at around the same level the second time, and advances and crosses the previous top. It should be safe to buy the market once it has moved above the top of the ‘W’.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Credit Review

DBS Bank Ltd, Singapore

Tel : 6223 2653

Fax : 6878 9961/54

Email : heetecklow@dbs.com

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Spam Calls from banks highlights Change of business strategy

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=156619

After what is deemed as a start of a global economic slowdown with higher inflation, Banks are slowly moving towards targetting the consumers with their calls to people to take on cards, loans, etc... This is not new definately, but it is the start of a stronger trend recently...

Asia has became the focus on growth, and rightly so, away from the housing problems in the US and UK, with growing affluency in India and China in particular.

With US consumers slowing down on consumption, the target has been shifted to Asia, and that pretty much explains the rising trend above mentioned.

In particular, do not release your HP numbers unnecessary.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Guess the American Elections? Look at the charts~!~!

A quote from ming from channelnewsasia forum... another side that has probably been drown over the last few months' saga... Another point of view... Nothing can be ruled out.
Hee Teck

跌破1000点大概不是今年的事而是明年的新闻。2008年至少还会一次很激烈的反弹，跑回4000-5000点都有可能。原因很简单，美国今年要举行大选。这几天美国高级官员都在搞一个很庞大的股市操作。奥巴马拉赢得了民主党的选票之后，共和党就立即行动。操作的目的是要怂恿那些对局面含着不乐观的看法的投资基金大量的把股票给卖了。悲观的团体把股票转卖到对当局有信心的集团手中后，市场就好炒作了。麦凯恩，如果要他这个又老又没有什么特别魅力的人选打败一个又年轻口才又那么俊的奥巴马拉，那共和党就得证明给美国人民看，跟着他们是有好日子过的。房市的泡沫破了，导致了次债的危机，深深地让美国人感受到自身的经济不稳。在伊拉克和阿富汗打了这么多年的苦战，美国人当然是希望能早点撤军。可是这两场战争肯定不是美国人民最关注的话题，因为大家都知道911的事件和石油对美国经济的重要性。在这个大选，最迫切的主题是美国经济的势力和共和党这8年对经济的管辖和策略。要美国人民投麦凯恩和共和党的票，那就得恢复美国人对经济的信心。而最直接和最有效的办法就是让美国股市上涨。美国官员这几天所说的对市场不利的言语，什么要对伊朗采取任何手段，什么经济明显衰退，通货膨胀，失业人数大大增长，过几天会有180度的转变。到时，美国市场肯定会很猛烈的上升。而且这个短期的牛市还会延续到年底，至少要在大选之后才恢复理性。有些网友可能会认为美国官员，这些笃信自由市场的教徒，是不会这么无耻的干涉市场的。这样想的人也实在太天真了。干预市场是每一个政府都会做的事。政府这么大，做啥都会牵涉到市场。既然不管怎么做都会影响到市场，不如干脆把市场的趋势转到对自己有利的方向。何况这个大选也实在太太重要了。奥巴马拉说过了，要是他成了总统，他的政策是要从伊拉克撤军。这是布什集团所不能接受的。布什集团不但要为自己的政治遗产考虑，他们也都深信伊拉克对美国在中亚地位的重要性。如果在伊拉克还没稳固和偏向美国之前撤军，中亚的布局很可能就会坍塌，而新立的中亚政府在很大的成分上是不会对美国友善的。到时他们愿不愿意把石油卖个美国，就成了一个很尴尬，很棘手的难题。所以无论如何，布什集团是不能让奥巴马拉得胜。为此，布什集团的将领和步兵一定会不折手段。
Just a little something I wrote for a Chinese message board today. There is no bubble in the Singapore market so obviously the way our market will behave is going to be different from China's grossly over valued markets. But remember the American presidential elections, it is perhaps the most important election in the last few decades.

Hee Teck

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

He learnt the importance of financial education the hard way

Sometimes, it is necessary to learn it the hard way...

Thats the way i did it too... Investing is too personal to learn it otherwise

He learnt the importance of financial education the hard way

By SIOW LI SEN

BEING a banker doesn't mean that one is infallible when it comes to investments. A career banker for some 30 years, Tee Fong Seng started in 1978 as a foreign exchange and money market dealer with Banker's Trust. Currently, he heads wealth management for UBS AG in South-east Asia as well as having responsibility for its Australian international business. Yet, when it came to his personal investment, it was not entirely pain-free.

In 1993, he lost US$50,000 of his mother's money in options trading in equities and bonds, recalls Mr Tee. 'It was a great deal of money at the time,' he said.

What came out of that experience though was the importance of education, he said. 'The experience instilled in me the importance of dedicating time and effort towards understanding my investments. The greatest lesson for me here was that market conditions cannot be controlled; but by being familiar with all the aspects of your portfolio, one can minimise risk exposure to some extent.'

In fact, Mr Tee has become quite the champion of financial education. A central component of his philosophy is client and employee education.

Mr Tee was responsible for championing the UBS Associate Programme in Singapore - a customised training programme aimed at developing young talent in Asia-Pacific into wealth management client advisers - and has been a key supporter of the UBS Wealth Management Campus Asia-Pacific in Singapore.

He is the chairman of the wealth management working group in private banking at the Institute of Banking and Finance and a member of the Financial Industry Competency Standards steering committee.

Before joining UBS Wealth Management, he was regional head for the Corporate Advisory Group of Swiss Bank Corporation and head of key account management.

Away from work, he chills out by playing golf, tennis and soccer. He plays tennis with his son and occasionally, his wife and daughter too. He also likes watching soccer on TV and other sports on the sports channels. Sometimes, he treats himself to a golf holiday.

Mr Tee holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the National University of Singapore. He is a Chartered Management Accountant (ACMA, London) and completed the Advance Executive Programme at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management in Chicago.

Has the US$ really turned around?

Oil for sure is a bubble that will burst soon... I'm said and i will repeat myself once again, oil at current prices is not beneficial to any parties, and the beneficial prices is about 85-105 usd. And we are likely to see that soon.

Dollar strength? that is a bit more difficult if Oil is not taken into account, however, from my previous EUR/USD chart, for the short term it is weakening...

Hee Teck

Has the US$ really turned around?

The available evidence is not all that impressive for us at this point

By LARRY WEE
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

OVER the past week, we saw an attempted US dollar comeback that took it up to one- and four-month highs in Singapore dollar and Japanese yen terms, and no less than three respected research reports have warned of a higher US dollar by end-2008.

At least for the moment, however, we must confess we are not overly impressed, based on what the fundamentals and our charts are telling us.

Yes, it's true that some fairly intensive anti-inflation Fed statements have inspired a sharp climb in both the short and long end of the US Treasury yield curve.

Two-year note yields recorded their biggest one-week rise in 26 years, while the benchmark 10-year note yield clocked a fresh six-month high of almost 4.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, overnight trading saw oil spike to a fresh all-time high of almost US$140 a barrel, but that proved to be short-lived - again providing some kind of support for those who argue that the US dollar may be bottoming out at last.

In their latest insight for Q3, DBS researchers have revised their end-2008 targets for the US dollar upwards. They now see the euro fall towards US$1.49 over the next six months, and the US dollar rise further to higher levels such as S$1.40, 9,600 rupiah, 47 pesos, 34 baht and 43.5 Indian rupees.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan researchers have told us that their ADXY index of Asian currencies has fallen through an important 200-day moving average.

We are quite happy to agree that if oil prices remain high - by which we mean they remain sticky above something like US$120 a barrel - the US dollar will certainly be in good demand against the currencies of countries with weak external accounts and large oil import bills to pay.

However, that is not the same as saying that the US dollar has definitively turned higher across the board.

On the technical side, we would point out that on an indexed basis, its foray above 74 has proven short-lived, at least so far.

And, after hitting a low of US$1.5350 after the Asian close on Monday, it only took a trio of poor US data releases to lift the euro a handsome two US cents higher in Asian trading yesterday - to a US$1.5550 peak.

That sure doesn't look like definitive US dollar strength to us.

Chart-wise, too, we continue to believe that the first sign of a more serious US dollar turnaround is a high-momentum sell-off that takes the euro and the British pound below US$1.53 and US$1.93 respectively. We could add a third: 93 US cent support for the Australian dollar - especially if gold should also fall through key US$845 support.

As for clues from the Wall Street, major indices like the Dow, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are (for us at least) still uncomfortably close to key support areas such as 12,000, 2,400 and 1,670 respectively.

Here's more. A good deal of the US dollar's attempted recovery over the past week has been inspired by rising expectations that the US central bank is now set to hike rates at least two - if not three - times before the year is out.

By yesterday, however, we were reading accounts of not one, not two, but three newspaper reports downplaying such rate hikes.

On Monday, we were told by research firm Forecast, a Washington Post editorial warned that Fed chief Ben Bernanke is far more worried about the negative effect that oil prices could have on growth, rather than the impact on inflation.

Then yesterday, Reuters wire reports quoted two newspaper reports that further trimmed US dollar gains in Asia.

First, the Wall Street Journal reportedly said that the Fed is likely to leave its short-term Fed funds rate unchanged at 2 per cent next week, and maybe even at their subsequent meeting in August.

Second, the on-line edition of the Financial Times reportedly suggested that there were people within the Fed who think that US rate hike expectations may now be overdone.

Not quite the stuff which inspires a serious US dollar turnaround, don't you think?

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Credit Review

DBS Bank Ltd, Singapore

Tel : 6223 2653

Fax : 6878 9961/54

Email : heetecklow@dbs.com

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

The Liabilities of A Guarantor

Some important knowledge for all readers

The Liabilities of A Guarantor

Being a guarantor is a financial responsibility. Consider carefully before you agree to be one. MoneySENSE highlights the things you should be aware of when you become a guarantor.

Case Study

Lee Mei agreed to guarantee a loan that her sister, Hui Yi, took to start a business. Hui Yi's boyfriend, Mark, agreed to co-guarantee the loan. After a year, Hui Yi's business floundered and she could not repay the outstanding amount of $50,000. Mark disappeared.

Lee Mei was shocked when the bank relied on a "joint and several liability" clause in the guarantee to demand that she pay the $50,000 owed by Hui Yi together with interest, bank charges and other costs.

If you are a guarantor, pay attention to the "joint and several liability" clause in a loan agreement. It allows a bank, without giving any reason, to ask you alone (even if there are other guarantors) to pay any amount owing to it under the guarantee.

The bank can also demand repayment from the guarantor, without trying first to recover from the borrower, if appropriate provision is made under the guarantee.

You should also be aware of the implications of the following terms, often contained in guarantees;-

"Principal Debtor" clauses. The intent of such clauses is to make the guarantor liable as if the guarantor had borrowed the money himself. So even though the borrower may escape liability, the guarantor remains liable.
Payment On Demand. Payment must be made by the guarantor when the bank makes a demand. The guarantor is liable for further charges, legal costs and interest if payment is delayed. Thus you should note what constitutes service of a demand by the bank according to the guarantee.
Restructuring. The loan may be restructured at the bank's discretion, but such restructuring does not release the guarantor from his obligations.
Continuing Security. The guarantee secures all the borrower's debts presently outstanding, as well as future advances to the borrower, subject only to the overall limit stated in the guarantee plus interest, bank charges and costs. The guarantor is liable for this outstanding amount until the bank explicitly releases the guarantor from his obligations.
Subordination. Any rights the guarantor may have against the borrower are subordinated to those of the bank - that is, the guarantor is only entitled to enforce such rights after the bank. The guarantor cannot protect himself by taking security from the borrower that may prejudice the rights of the bank.
Concurrent Remedies. The bank may proceed against the guarantor to recover the loan without first having to take action against the borrower. The bank may also take action against the guarantor at the same time as any proceedings against the borrower.
Set Off. The bank may deduct any monies owned by the guarnator with the bank, for instance the guarantor's monies held in a savings account with the bank, from any amount due under the guarantee.

A guarantee imposes an obligation on you to settle the loan if the borrower does not. If you cannot do so promptly, serious consequences will ensue. For instance, your credit history will be affected. It might be difficult for you to obtain credit in future even if the amount under the guarantee is eventually settled. If you are in default of $10,000 or more, you may be subject to bankruptcy proceedings. A bankrupt faces many restrictions including prohibitions on taking a loan, engaging in business and going abroad.

Things to Note When Considering to be a Guarantor:

Understand your liability. Ask the bank the following questions. What is the amount of liability you are committing to? Under what circumstances will the bank call on you to pay up the liability? Does the bank have recourse to your monies in the bnak if you fail to pay up as a guarantor? Is your liability limied to a specific amount or is it limited? When will your liability as a guarantor be discharged and how will you be notified?
Ask the borrower for all his loan documentation. Do not limit your enquiries to the guarantee. It will help you to better assess your risk. For instance, is there any other security given for the loan, such as a mortgage? Additional security may lower the risk. Assess the creditworthiness of the borrower. For business loans, the terms of loans of this type will vary, and may be more onerous than expected, while the commerical reality may not justify your risk.
Consider alternatives. For instance, a memorandum (or pledge) of deposit may be sufficient. It is a promise to deposit certain monies with the bank which can be set off against and deducted from the balance outstanding on the loan. A pledge would limit your liability to the amount of the deposit.
Understand the Rights and Obligations of Co-Gurantors. If you are not the only guarantor, you have rights against, as well as obligations to, your fellow guarantors. You may be able to comple your fellow guarantors to contribute to the settlement of the loan even if the bank is unwilling to pursue them. Conversely, you may become liable to your fellow guarantors.

Being a guarantor is a serious commitment. Give it sufficient consideration, and seek independent legal advice if necessary, to clarify any doubts, before you agree to be one.

This information is provided by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Assocation of Banks in Singapore and Ngee Ann Polytechnic, School of Business and Accountancy as part of the MoneySENSE national financial education programme. Ngee Ann Polytechnic has conducted financial education programmes for students since 2002

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Euro USD

Day chart looks good for a trade... long at current price.. cut @1.525

profit @ 1.58

Hee Teck

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Patience with the US dollar worldwide running out

This guy shares my sentiment really.

By WILLIAM PESEK JR

HENRY Paulson and Ben Bernanke, consider yourselves boomeranged. A year ago, US Treasury Secretary Paulson was using virtually every chance he had to urge China to strengthen its currency. The effort has gone full circle with China calling on the US to worry about its own. 'We have conveyed to the US government that a strong US dollar is in the interest of the US economy,' Zhu Guangyao, an assistant minister at China's Finance Ministry said last week.

That turn of events is even more extraordinary than the yuan's 11 per cent gain against the US dollar in the past year. The US dollar is clearly getting on Asia's nerves. Aside from hitting the region's competitiveness, the trillions of US dollars of reserves held in Asia are losing value by the day.

Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke's boomerang experience may prove more serious. Economists have long warned that the Fed's 3.25 percentage points of interest rate cuts since September complicated China's inflation woes. Much of the liquidity from the Fed's rate reductions has made its way to Asia, boosting money supply and fuelling inflation. Now, there's reason to believe that the Fed is suffering from those same feedback effects - importing inflation that's ultimately of its own making.

Even though China is letting the yuan rise, it's still closely linked to the US dollar. It's not a formal peg, like those in the Gulf, yet China keeps the yuan on a short leash relative to the US dollar. The question is when the so-called US dollar zone becomes influential enough to affect global inflation and the Fed's latitude to cut rates further. One wonders if we have already reached the point where the Fed's liquidity is, in a very roundabout way, heading back to the US.

The Fed operates with the US in mind. It often gets away with downplaying the US's imbalances - like a current account deficit that would sink other nations - because it prints the reserve currency. That's why the Fed felt that it could go so far to restore calm on Wall Street.

In a more closed economy, central bankers don't have to worry much about their peers overseas. When your economy is as big and open as the US's, when capital markets are more porous than ever and when trillions of US dollars are warehoused abroad, monetary policy dynamics become more complicated.

The US dollar's implications haven't escaped Mr Bernanke. He said last week that the Fed is 'attentive' to the currency's effect on inflation expectations. The shift in rhetoric fits with Mr Paulson's effort to put a floor under the US dollar.

Mr Paulson may not fathom how the US dollar is complicating the Fed's job. He recently travelled to the Gulf and voiced confidence that US dollar pegs in economies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain aren't going away. Never mind the hypocrisy of all this - it's a problem for China to peg its currency but fine for Gulf states. Mr Paulson's bigger concern is heading off a broad-based and destabilising shift from the US dollar into the euro.

A continued build-up of US dollars comes with its own risks. As seen in China and in the Gulf, the increase in reserves is overwhelming policymakers' ability to keep them from seeping into the money supply. It's hardly a good time for such a dynamic amid record food and oil costs.

While explosive world demand is driving commodity-price trends, so is cheap money, says Harvard University professor Jeffrey Frankel. Low US rates are encouraging speculation in commodities, while the rising value of those commodities simultaneously boosts inflation and lowers borrowing costs.

Negative real interest rates in Asia also are bumping up against oil subsidies in nations such as China. When put together with undervalued currencies and policies that keep oil prices higher than they should be, inflation rates above gross domestic product growth are a problem. So is the likelihood that the US dollar's declines are feeding demand for oil.

It's not clear what to do about all this. With European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet threatening to raise rates, the Fed's US dollar options are limited. Intervening in markets also seems to be of limited utility. Besides, the Treasury is technically in charge of US dollar policy.

What is clear is that patience with the US dollar is running out, and not just in China. The US's days of devaluing its way to growth may be over. -- Bloomberg

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Monday, June 9, 2008

Buffett's big bet

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/04/news/newsmakers/buffett_bet.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008060908

So very interesting... esp for those in the Financial Planner field...
Truth hurts... and its coming soon

Hee Teck

U.K. Producer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqTm_aySPCps&refer=home

Earlier i mentioned that UK will follow behind US in walking towards recession... it seems like UK is walking faster than US now...

Nevertheless, i am looking at a decent hike in CPI this friday for US.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

MAJOR TRENDS

Geopolitical issue
Israel to attack Iran unless enrichment stops: minister
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's deputies said on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSL0625195820080606

* North Korean
* Iran, Iraq, Pakistan
* Russia, EU & USA

Energy
Oil rises near $138 on price spike prediction
Oil prices neared $132 a barrel Friday on an analyst prediction that prices could hit $150 by July 4 and also continued upward pressure from comments made by the president of the European Central Bank regarding an interest-rate hike. Ole Slorer of Morgan Stanley said he expected a "short-term spike in oil prices," on the back of rising demand in Asia , Dow Jones Newswires reported.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD914JHC80

* Currently, demand match Supply. moving forward where cheap supply coming from as demand from China, India, Dubai, etc increase economy activity and population increase.

USA Economy

US jobless rate leaps to 3-1/2 year high in May
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent in May, its highest in more than 3-1/2 years, as the barely growing economy lost jobs for the fifth straight month. It was the biggest jump in the monthly jobless rate in 22 years and raised concerns the economy was at increased risk of stalling into recession.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html
* Mountains of current and future debt to foreign nations and their own people. Debt to china, japan etc. Cost to pay for Social Security, medical care, old infrastuctures.
* Subprime impact to housing, financial, housing loans, car loans, study loans, credit cards, swaps, CDO etc

Global Environment
$45 trillion needed to combat warming
By JOSEPH COLEMAN
The Associated Press
Friday, June 6, 2008; 7:06 AM
TOKYO -- The world needs to invest $45 trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to an energy study released Friday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/06/AR2008060601088_pf.html

Nature disasters:- Earthquakes, Flood, Drought, Hurricance, epidemic .... increase frequently and intensity.

Food Crisis
UN chief: food production must rise 50 percent by 2030<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
By FRANCES D'EMILIO and ARIEL DAVID – 3 days ago
ROME (AP) — World food production must rise by 50 percent by 2030 to meet increasing demand, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon told world leaders Tuesday at a summit grappling with hunger and civil unrest caused by food price hikes.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jtFqRVL1zLJZWOfQuDRQ-ihVYBOgD912IJA81

UN chief: Billions of dollars needed yearly to fight food crisis
· As much as $15 bln to $20 bln would be needed yearly to help fight the food crisis.
· Ban said most of the money would come from concerned countries themselves.
· Ban urged international community to take immediate steps to increase food availability.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/05/content_8313394.htm

More money will be invested in the sectors and companies that help in resolving or reducing these problems.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Reasons why oil will go higher

Some oil pundits see crude hitting $140 or more
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL0634622920080606

Sure, they may be in a speculative bubble, but like what i tell my friends, speculation dies off if there is no fundamentals to back them up. In this case, there are several fundamental factors to support the speculation.

I am calling for higher oil for the next 10 days minimum. It is hard to see past that.

1) weak US growth leading to weaker USD
Weak USD is the main catalyst for higher oil. Period.

2) higher unemployment leading to weaker USD
higher unemployment means businesses are not expanding, they are contracting and cutting workers, leading to lower growth. Period

3) ECB to raise rates.
That will strengthen the Euro, and push for more ppl to take on the Euro instead of USD. Interest rate difference will push more investors to sell USD investments and move towards Europe. Euro has also proved to be a more stable currency, which is attractive to trade and business. Weaker USD again means higher Oil. Period

4) Fed not looking to raise rates yet.
in my previous article i mentioned that ECB raising rates will force Fed's hands, and this is reality. For many articles i have said that ECB is not following Fed, it is taking on a mind of its own, trying to prove that Fed is walking the wrong direction and ECB is definately not following. ECB has my backing to come out tops. Fed's hand WILL be forced is less than 3 meetings. Meanwhile, USD will be shorted. Period

5) Tax rebate has ran its course.
the stimulant for the economy is gone. They may or may not go for another stimulant, but does it matters? It only delays the inevitable for maybe 1month or 2? Tax rebate came in May, We are now in June. Desperate people will have spent it all. Not so desperate ppl will probably save it in the bank anyway.

6) Higher inflation.
Inflation is another catalyst for higher Oil, metals etc. And inflation is DEFINiTELY creeping up. Asia is feeling the effects with several double digit inflation, and counting, US retail sales bosses like walmart etc is outspoken on food inflation. Energy prices is everywhere now, $4 gasoline is the norm and going higher. Sure, Core inflation outstrips food and energy, but it is only a small time gap before core inflation catches up. Watch next Fri's CPI. Looks very very interesting and a chance for shorts.

7) Middle East unrest.
Recent outspoken attempts to derail the stability in the middle east are main catalyst for spikes. They are not fundamental reasons with lasting consequences, but they causes huge spikes, owning to history.

8) Asia Oil Demand.
Higher demand and lower supply sends oil higher, but this one may be overblown as US goes into recession, demand will fall. Nevertheless a good excuse.

Hee Teck

Fed to hold rates even as inflation fears rise

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0645168320080606

Sure, Fed can intend to hold their rates steady till the end of the year, that is if everything goes into their favour like they have planned. But not so...
ECB has a mind of their own and i have highlighted on how ECB will be different in actions to Fed. They will raise rates to tackle inflation, and that will force Fed's hand.

We will see Fed raising rates in less than 3 future meetings, in my view.
In this case, i think we can say that US will be held to ransom, and Fed, left without a choice.
Hee Teck

U.S. Economy: Payrolls Fall, Unemployment Rate Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayEobmxjyiaM&refer=home

Ugly, ugly report.
The airline industry is in crisis.
The automotive industry is in crisis.
The Finance industry is in crisis.
The home builders are in crisis.

Oil is back to records.
Inflation is creeping up fast.
Fed has done with interest rate cutting.

It is really difficult to find positives in this market. Nevertheless, i will halt pessimism and wait for one more month data to confirm the trend in employment.
Lets see.

Hee Teck

Friday, June 6, 2008

S&P downgrades Ambac, MBIA

Another day, another selloff for Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI). The bond insurers sold off anew Thursday afternoon after S&P cut its insurer financial strength ratings on the companies’ main insurance units to double-A from triple-A. The news came a day after Moody’s said a downgrade of Ambac and MBIA was “likely.” Shares fell more than 6% after dropping more than 15% Wednesday.

“The rating actions on the companies reflect our belief that these entities will face diminished public finance and structured finance new business flow and declining financial flexibility,” S&P wrote. “In addition, we believe continuing deterioration in key areas of the U.S. residential mortgage sector
and related CDO structures will place increasing pressure on capital adequacy. The ‘AA’ financial strength ratings of these companies are supported by currently sound claims paying ability and liquidity levels in our opinion.”

On Wednesday, the companies responded to Moody’s review announcement within minutes, with Ambac pronouncing itself “disappointed” and MBIA saying it “disagreed.” Presumably we can expect more of the same this afternoon.

Back to main column

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Level One, Two and Three Assets

Level 1, 2, and 3 assets are ways of classifying a company's assets based on the degree of certainty around the assets' underlying value. Level one assets can be valued with certainty because they are liquid and have clear market prices. At the other end of the spectrum, Level 3 assets are illiquid and estimating their value requires inputs that are unobservable and reflect management assumptions.

[Level 1
Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on unadjusted quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in an active market (examples include active exchange-traded equity securities, listed derivatives, most U.S. Government and agency securities, and certain other sovereign government obligations).

Level 2
Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on quoted prices in markets that are not active or model inputs that are observable either directly or indirectly for substantially the full term of the asset or liability. Level 2 inputs include the following: a) Quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets (for example, restricted stock); b) Quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in non-active markets (examples include corporate and municipal bonds, which trade infrequently); c) Pricing models whose inputs are observable for substantially the full term of the asset or liability (examples include most over-the-counter derivatives, including interest rate and currency swaps); and d) Pricing models whose inputs are derived principally from or corroborated by observable market data through correlation or other means for substantially the full term of the asset or liability (examples include certain residential and commercial mortgage related assets, including loans, securities and derivatives).

Level 3
Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on prices or valuation techniques that require inputs that are both unobservable and significant to the overall fair value measurement. These inputs reflect management’s own assumptions about the assumptions a market participant would use in pricing the asset or liability (examples include certain private equity investments, certain residential and commercial mortgage related assets (including loans, securities and derivatives), and long-dated or complex derivatives including certain foreign exchange options and long dated options on gas and power).

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Philippines confirms May inflation at 9.6%

That is very near double digits... and with petrol hikes in the region, higher inflation is the norm for Asia...

More to come... Watch countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, India and indonesia... We could be seeing a shift from US problems into Asia...

Nothing is ruled out...

MANILA - The Philippines' National Statistics Organisation confirmed on Thursday that consumer prices rose to a nine-year high of 9.6 per cent in May from a year earlier.

Core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy items, reached an annual 6.2 per cent in May compared to 5.9 per cent in April.

The headline number was at the top end of the central bank's forecast range of 8.8-9.6 per cent.

Inflation in April was at 8.3 per cent from a year earlier.

The May number was the highest annual inflation since 10.5 per cent in January 1999.

A Reuters poll earlier this week had forecast the May number would come in at 9.1 per cent. -- REUTERS

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

MM Lee says growth tied to stability of govts, human capital investments

SINGAPORE: Western-style liberal democracy is not a prerequisite for growth; instead what is needed is stability of governments, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said at the Skolkovo International Advisory Board Meeting in Moscow on Wednesday.

Citing a report by the World Bank, Mr Lee said countries with different systems - from single-party governments to multi-party democracies - can achieve sustained growth, but this must come with stability.

Rapid growth over a long period, he noted, also requires an effective government and strong leadership.

Even more vital, said Mr Lee, is for a country to develop its people and institutions.

Pointing to Singapore's experience, Mr Lee said without natural resources, the country is forced to innovate, think and plan.

To leverage on human capital, the minister mentor said it is important to invest in education and public health.

Leaders should also attract good people to join the government, based on a system of meritocracy, he added.

Speaking to reporters after attending the Skolkovo International Advisory Board meeting, Mr Lee said Singapore is keen to participate in the management of Russia's airport infrastructure.

He disclosed that Changi Airport International is currently in advanced negotiations to manage St Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport and airports in the south, including Sochi.

As for Singapore's policy when it comes to investing its reserves, Mr Lee said the country has minimal investments in emerging markets at this point in time.

"No, I'm not considering investing in sovereign wealth funds in Russia or emerging markets. We have to take a very conservative approach to our hard-earned savings and therefore we go into mature markets where the returns are not so good, but the certainty of the returns and value of your capital will never be in doubt," he said. - CNA/ac/de

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Banks have a capital problem

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/03/news/companies/banks_capital/index.htm?postversion=2008060314

A very informative article on Banks facing problems with cash, hence raising them from multple venues... Also mentioned the effects and consequences of actions taken.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Keep an eye on rising long-term interest rates

An interesting article relating to recent preference shares by DBS and OCBC.

in my opinion, low interest rates are definately over, but higher interest rate is somewhat capped... Govt will not use interest rate too much because interest rates promotes growth, and too aggressive increases will severely undermine growth in ALL sectors.

Hence preference shares are still pretty good... My take is the one by DBS, or nothing at all...

In terms of bank size, stability, return, and scale, OCBC do not come close.

Hee Teck

By SIOW LI SEN

LONG-TERM interest rates have started to rise. This hardly matters for many retail savers who put their money in short-term fixed deposits of mainly three to 12 months. But some who are switching out of their low interest rate fixed deposits (FD) into OCBC Bank's 5.1 per cent preference shares currently on sale should keep tabs on this event.

The problem here, though, is that debt or fixed-income markets in Singapore are underdeveloped and little understood, especially among retail investors. Accelerating global inflation and expectations of US interest rate rises have pushed Singapore's long-term government bond yields to near two-year highs, ahead of an expected debt sell-off in the third quarter, said Reuters yesterday. When yields or interest rates rise, the price of the bonds usually fall. Preference shares, which are like a bond, typically exhibit similar behaviour.

Analysts said that the US Federal Reserve was expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter to rein in inflation, which would prompt a sell-off in government bonds. The yield on the Singapore government 10-year bond soared about 120 basis points in the last two weeks to 3.6 per cent, a level last seen in July 2006.

'It has pulled back to 3.3 per cent, but will probably rebound to 3.9 per cent by the year-end,' said Jens Lauschke, a fixed-income analyst at DBS.

Selena Ling, an OCBC economist, said: 'Looking forward, I do think that the low interest rate cycle may have bottomed and the market is adjusting to a higher inflation environment. We are forecasting 6 per cent inflation for 2008, and a moderation to 4 per cent in 2009. The current 10-year SGS bond yield may target 3.65 per cent resistance last seen in April 2006 in the coming months, and may head towards 4 per cent by year-end.'

Chua Hak Bin, chief Asian strategist of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, expected US treasury yields to continue climbing to about 4.2 per cent, and possibly as high as 4.4 per cent, in 12 months' time. 'SGS bond yields will likely track its US counterpart and head slightly higher from hereon following the recent spike,' he said. Dr Chua added that 'that should not put undue downward pressure on DBS and OCBC preference shares'. DBS last month also sold preference shares but they were targeted at sophisticated or institutional investors. One analyst, however, said that he expected a much bigger gain for the 10-year SGS bond yields. He thought that it could rise to 5 per cent by year end. If that happens, a shareholder would get $5.10 dividend but might see his preference shares fall below the par value of $100.

Already, OCBC's rarely traded 3.93 per cent preference share has fallen below its par value of $100 to $99.70.

There's capital risk on these preference shares which is not appreciated by retail investors, he said.

A local brokerage said in a note yesterday that it believes that the comparisons to fixed deposits and 10-year Singapore government bonds are not appropriate.

OCBC had said that it believes that the preference shares provide an opportunity to invest in an instrument with a relatively attractive and sustainable return. It then compared the 5.1 per cent dividend to current yields for 10-year SGS bonds as well as local fixed deposit rates.

Preference shares are perpetual securities and therefore not comparable to fixed deposits. Government bonds will be redeemed like clockwork at the end of their 10-year life, whereas OCBC's preference shares (like those of DBS which were targeted at 'sophisticated' institutional funds), are redeemable strictly at the discretion of the banks. In addition, it should also be noted that preference shares are no alternative to the mother shares, it said.

For sophisticated investors and institutions like insurance companies, preference shares fit well into a large, well diversified portfolio. For enthusiastic retail investors of preference shares, they may want to do more research into long-term interest rate movements and how they may impact the price of their securities.

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

S Korea economy in trouble: Finance minister

Wow... Finance minister admiting their country in trouble... that's grave.

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SEOUL - Finance Minister Kang Man Soo said on Wednesday the South Korean economy overall was in trouble, listing persistently high inflation and current account deficits among the major problems.

'The economy is in trouble as a whole. Price growth continues to accelerate and the current account has posted deficits for five months,' Mr Kang said at the beginning of a meeting of government officials over economic policy.

He was referring to current account data not adjusted for seasonal patterns, although South Korea posted a surplus both in March and April after adjustment.

The comments came a day after Vice Finance Minister Choi Joong Kyung's pledge to employ all available efforts to contain inflation lifted the won , persuading investors to expect the government to let the currency strengthen.

Mr Kang did not mention the government's 6 per cent economic growth target set for this year, which his ministry already admitted may be revised downward next month.

Analysts forecast this year's growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy would drop far below last year's 5 per cent, and the central bank chief said last month growth would probably come below 4.5 per cent this year. -- REUTERS

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Monday, June 2, 2008

UBS Faces More Client Defections After Banker's Plea

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a7szKbS1Bi5A&refer=home

UBS is a bank in troubled times. Subprime thingy aside, they have big problems in ops and now with clients.

Things are not looking good. And one will have to question GIC/Temasek's investment in UBS... Even if it is for the long term... How long is long?

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

China Leads Asia in Retreat From Inflation Battle, Risking Bust

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=achs5_KU4K0c&refer=home

Inflation is a global trend... US is the only country not facing key inflation and being cast into doubt over their numbers right now.

Quote

Asia's economies aren't the only ones falling behind. ``Globally, short-term interest-rate changes set by central banks have not increased on average by as much as inflation,'' John Taylor, a Stanford University economist and author of a monetary-policy formula often cited as a benchmark, said in a Tokyo speech May 28. ``This is counter to key monetary principles.''

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Low Hee Teck

ECB inflation mandate clear at all times: Trichet

At a time when US Fed is heavily criticized for the much controversy in handling the economic situation, the ECB really stands out in comparison

Economists do not expect the bank to change interest rates this week

(MADRID) The European Central Bank's (ECB) mandate to keep a lid on inflation is clear and valid at all times, the bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said in an interview published yesterday.

Mr Trichet: 'I have never campaigned in favour of the euro's international use.'

'Our mandate is clear: maintain price stability in the medium term and be credible in this exercise in a way that inflation expectations are firmly anchored,' he told the Sunday edition of Spanish newspaper El Pais. 'This is valid under any circumstances.'

Mr Trichet added his remarks should not be taken as a signal on interest rates as he and other ECB committee members are in a blackout period prior to their June 5 rate setting meeting.

Economists polled by Reuters this week do not expect the bank to change interest rates this week from their current 4 per cent, where they have been since June last year.

Asked if the euro could substitute the dollar as the world's currency of reference within 10 years, Mr Trichet said: 'I have never campaigned in favour of the euro's international use.'

Mr Trichet addressed the issue of greater financial market regulation, which many politicians and commentators are pushing for in the wake of global economic turmoil triggered by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the global credit crunch.

He said if self-regulation was appropriate and effective it should be adopted: 'I think there are areas where we could have self-regulation. It seems to me we should not rule out the possibility beforehand.'

'If the authorities consider that the codes of good practice are insufficient to provide financial stability, or if the private sector is incapable of agreeing the necessary code voluntarily, then it is clear that we would see a case for public regulation,' he said. 'Transparency is essential.'

European politicians on the left are frustrated that the European Commission - which has sole right at European Union level to propose financial regulation - has largely opted for industry-led solutions to rectify flaws highlighted by market turbulence.

The world's top financial groups plan to unveil a set of voluntary guidelines in July in a bid to influence regulators' response and prevent a repeat of the credit crunch.

Following comments by EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia that the size of some executives' salaries was 'totally irresponsible', Mr Trichet said the private sector should examine whether pay structure may have encouraged bosses to take too much risk.

'The private sector has to reflect about this because it has paid a very high price for the system of incentives that many private institutions have awarded their employees,' he said.

'The financial sector should pay much attention to this issue.'

Mr Trichet also asked EU states to cooperate closely over financial market supervision, echoing an Italian proposal last December for a single European rulebook with common, pan-European supervisory standards - a move blocked by Britain.

'We are convinced that many improvements must be made. As of now, some decisions have been taken by Ecofin (group of European Union finance ministers) and we ask for complete implementation, as quickly as possible.'

And further afield, he said the ECB was well aware that global economic turmoil required a global solution.

'If we resolve a problem on one side of the Atlantic without resolving it on the other, we will have to adjust the first again,' he said.

'We must be sure that we are treating all problems without being complacent and without thinking some elements of the global financial system are untouchable.' - Reuters

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Another US-centric week ahead with release of 3 key reports

3 key points namely unreliability of US Govt data especially in terms of inflation, High end housing market hit by lower valuation, STI stronger than other indexes in past 1 weeks, month end dressing?

Also on the lookout is Employment data, which likely to show increase in unemployment.

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

TODAY, the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) releases its May report, which will give an indication of the state of US manufacturing.

On Friday, the US Labor Department releases its May employment report, which will show how deeply the slowdown is hitting the average US citizen.

Sandwiched in between the two releases is the issue of the US factory orders tomorrow, courtesy of the Commerce Department, though it'll be today's and Friday's figures which would be the more closely watched.

It's going to be another US-centric week ahead as traders wait for direction from Wall Street.

As always, trading will be driven by programme trades that target the main index stocks. Most of the time, the buying or selling is done ahead of expectations of how Wall Street might perform later each day, as opposed to how it did the previous night.

On the ISM's report, research house Ideaglobal said it expects the headline number for US manufacturing to edge up from 48.6 in April to 49.5 in May.

'The manufacturing sector has seen consistently weak results thus far in 2008 - and we anticipate additional weakness before posting gains later in the year' said Ideaglobal.

It didn't give figures for its employment forecast but said it expects a 'modest improvement'.

Bloomberg, in the meantime, said that it expects the May figure to drop to 48.5, based on its survey of economists, with 50 being the dividing line between expansion and contraction. 'The following day, the Commerce Department may report factory orders dropped 0.1 per cent in April after rising 1.3 per cent the prior month,' said Bloomberg.

Of Friday's employment report, the financial news agency reported that 'payrolls probably dropped by 60,000 workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed'.

It added that 'credit restrictions triggered by foreclosures, along with soaring food and fuel prices, have caused spending to slow, prompting banks, construction companies and manufacturers to fire workers'. 'Rising joblessness heightens the risk that consumers will keep retrenching, further hurting growth.'

According to Bloomberg, the projected fall in May's payrolls would follow a decline of 20,000 in April, taking the total number of jobs lost so far this year to 260,000. 'The jobless rate likely rose to 5.1 per cent from 5 per cent, according to the survey median,' it said.

As an interesting side note about the reliability of government data, BCA Research in its Friday Daily Insights said that 'US inflation worries have intensified, as the surge in highly visible gasoline and food prices continues'.

It added that 'government data are not trusted because they show that core consumer price inflation has failed to rise'.

Of further interest would be the cover story of US newspaper Barron's May 26 issue on the slumping US high-end property market. The story focused on the ultra-high end - for instance a 67-acre, seven-bedroom, 20,000 sq ft bungalow in Aspen, Colorado that costs US$58 million, or a 10-bedroom, 21,000 sq ft, six-acre house in Beverly Hills that costs US$29 million.

The report said that after appearing impervious to the collapse of the past two years, prices have now dropped 10-15 per cent in the past two quarters.

Morgan Stanley chief investment strategist David Darst is quoted as saying that 'the high-end market is the fortress of the real-estate asset class and the inner sanctum has now been breached'.

A third point of interest is the frequency with which prices in the broader local market diverged from the Straits Times Index. On each of the four occasions that the STI rose last week, the broad market was either mixed or only marginally firmer.

Given that the STI usually has a profound influence on sentiment, you'd have to wonder why this divergence occurred. Could it be simply that the index enjoyed month-end window-dressing?

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Iskandar Malaysia prospects hazy as Abdullah's star dims

Political unstability in Malaysia will affect Singapore greatly...

Investors worried that PM's pet project in Johor may be shelved if he loses power

(SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR) Malaysia's plan for a showpiece economic zone in its south is in doubt because of the uncertain fate of the country's prime minister and a lukewarm response from big investors in nearby Singapore.

On paper, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's pet project to develop the 2,200 square kilometres of land in southern Johor state into an economic zone to complement the rich but land-scarce city-state of Singapore looks good. The area has so far drawn US$10.5 billion in investment, much of it from the Middle East, riding on investor hopes that the area will become a hinterland for the city-state the way that China's booming Shenzhen, once a tiny fishing village, complements neighbouring Hong Kong.

The Iskandar Malaysia zone, three times bigger than Singapore, would be Malaysia's largest economic zone. The government says it should create 800,000 jobs and attract US$100 billion in investment over 25 years.

Its proponents say it could be South-east Asia's answer to China's Pearl River delta, a manufacturing heartland that turns out more than a quarter of China's worldwide exports.

But Malaysia's track record in getting such grand projects off the ground is patchy and Singapore developers are looking to booming China and India instead, worried that the plans will be shelved if Mr Abdullah loses power. 'It's Abdullah's project. If he's not around, no one knows what's going to happen as different prime ministers will have different priorities,' said Suan Teck Kin, an economist at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB).

Mr Abdullah's position weakened after the poor showing of his ruling coalition in March polls and speculation is rife he may be forced to resign.

'Given this kind of political vacuum in Malaysia, I don't think anyone will be rushing into Iskandar,' said Song Seng Wun, a Singapore-based economist at Malaysian bank CIMB.

Expensive government development projects have been for years Malaysia's answer to regional economic disparities in a country spread over the Malay peninsula and parts of the island of Borneo.

Their success has been mixed at best. UOB's Mr Suan cited a proposed IT zone near the capital Kuala Lumpur as an example of a project that is struggling after its sponsor and Mr Abdullah's predecessor, Mahathir Mohamad, left office.

State investment arm Khazanah Nasional, which has opened a marketing office in Singapore to promote the Iskandar zone, brushed off political concerns and said investors are committed to Malaysia.

Mainly Muslim Malaysia has been a magnet for Middle Eastern investors flush with petrodollars who have been snapping up banks, hotels and malls. Abu Dhabi investment arm Mubadala Development Co is leading a consortium to develop a multi-billion- dollar city within Iskandar. KL has also established itself as a leading centre in Asia for the burgeoning Islamic Finance market. But state-linked Singapore developers have been cool to Iskandar. Many analysts say for it to really take off, it needs Singapore firms such as CapitaLand to develop on land that costs as little as 1/30th of Singapore land.

'Singapore investments could be very crucial for Iskandar,' said Malaysian political analyst Khoo Kay Peng. 'Malaysia needs investments in high-technology areas such as biotech, rather than just a pure real estate play,' he said.

Singapore developers are wary after they got burned by frequent and unexpected policy changes during Dr Mahathir's rule, said the head of investments at one Singapore firm. -- Reuters

Best Regards

Low Hee Teck

Monday, June 30, 2008

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Friday, June 27, 2008

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Friday, June 20, 2008

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Some important knowledge for all readers

The Liabilities of A Guarantor

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Monday, June 9, 2008

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Friday, June 6, 2008

S&P downgrades Ambac, MBIA

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Monday, June 2, 2008

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