Thursday, October 9, 2008

Rally ahead(short term)? - charts says it as posted earlier

For me, the turning point was 2 issues.
1) coordinated effort to cut rates.
Fed knew the effects of rate cuts are drowning, but a coordinated effort is a big and significant one. This could lead to a sustainable bear rally till near elections.
2) Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says of plans to recapitalise banks.
The earlier measure of buying bad stuff using taxpayers money is not effective. It takes bad stuff and do a transfer from one balance sheet to another. It does not fundamentally solve the problem, which is a lack of cash, or capital.
Today, he mentioned the recapitalisation of bank, which literally means to provide cash for stakes in banks.
This means that banks will have more money, and that fundamentally solves the issue of lack of money, until confidence comes back.
 
the combination of the 2, no. 1) to stop the rout, no. 2) to take on the issue are 2 major positives for me.
Esp 2) is the main solution that many strong economist have mentioned.
 
this could be a substantial turning point for a while, it remains a recessionary global economy.
 
Hee Teck
 

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