Hi,
Just to share a point of view. US elections is 4th Nov i think, and when the tide recedes, the stones will surface.
Earlier back, i was looking at other elections like year 2000, where we had the tech bubble, coincidence?
Food for thought.
Wishing all a Happy Deepavali
Hee Teck
ming is a forummer in channelnewsasia.
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ming
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 1635
|  Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject: |  |
| So shocking is this sell down that I wondered how could I be so blind. If the whole world was heading into a new dark age, how is it that I have not read anything that would have alerted me to this catastrophe. As an act of penance, I scanned through the earnings reports of major U.S. corporations and I have included them here in case there are other people like me who wish to punish themselves for missing the fact that the ground they stand on has opened up.
One by one, large corporations report healthy or expected results but say that they feel uncertain about the global macroeconomic situation. Aside from the financials, corporations are not saying that problems in their industry explains the sell-off but rather that the meltdown is causing them to be cautious about the future. Dog wagging the tail or tail wagging the dog?
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ming
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 1635
| | Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: | |
| Everyone is screaming bloody recession, but where are the tell tale signs of a global slowdown? Every time a store closes or a factory shutters, it is taken as evidence of the doom that is upon us. But retail stores fail all the time, in good times and in bad times. Production that is no longer competitive will have to shut down. Inefficient producers in China for instance are now forced to contend with a stronger yuan and many of them are closing shop. This is just the natural economic process of how society organizes itself. It is not evidence of a general economic malaise.
Indeed, as I go through the earnings releases for major U.S. corporations, I find practically no evidence of the economic collapse that financial markets are assuming. In fact, now that commodity prices have returned to rational levels, the margin squeeze from higher production costs and inflationary fears can recede into the background. And that is a positive because it takes the heat off the global economic infrastructure. Will there be deflation instead? How is that going to happen when trillions and trillions of dollars have been pumped into the global financial system? Do people really expect that aggregate demand in Western economies will fall substantially because of the market crisis?
There is no economic explanation for what has happened, but the all important U.S. elections are on in a few days and that makes things very interesting. Baring the possibility that all money managers have gone crazy and have decided to force a fire sale of their own and their clients' assets, there are only a few economic actors who can create such mayhem and none of them are private individuals. Continued U.S. engagement in the Middle East is simply too important and a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as proposed by Senator Barack Obama is just not something that can be contemplated. But what will they do to stop Obama? | |
ming
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 1635
| | Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:08 pm Post subject: | |
| http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122505465551669955.html
Just look at the projected growth rates for Asian economies. Growth rates come down by 1-2% and the market falls by 70%? Huh? During the Asian Financial Crisis, there was a sharp and real contraction in economic output which helped justify the sharp equity sell-off. But nothing of the sort is happening in today's markets. Look at the numbers, there is no global recession. | |
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Courage is not the absence of fear, but something more important than fear
http://dreamerziv.blogspot.com/ - DreamerZ Investment Views
http://heeteck.blogspot.com/ - DreamerZ Personal Blog
--
Courage is not the absence of fear, but something more important than fear
http://dreamerziv.blogspot.com/ - DreamerZ Investment Views
http://heeteck.blogspot.com/ - DreamerZ Personal Blog
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