S&P 500, USO and weekly, commentary by Hee Teck

S&P 500 downtrend

USO daily chart range bounded

USO weekly volume and price divergence

S&P500 is in a downtrend, nearing bearzone, taking no help from fed, whom signalled that they are not ready to increase interest rates yet. Near term economic indicators are not going to be good, with Auto sales definately bad, PMI down, along with all the rest, most notable is the EMPLOYMENT RATE. Last month gave us a sharply higher rating, expecting to revise down this time round.

Any reading above 5.3%(last month was 5.5%) is bad. And no one expects it to be better anyway...

Notes on Oil(USO), daily looks to have broken above the range bound, and on first hand seems looking to go much higher, but with the divergence in weekly chart @ volume vs price, one will need to take note of that moving forward on oil.

Then again, oil is a bubble with fundamentals... While oil looks to be heading downwards, US economic indicators looks likely to be weak, bringing USD down with it, supporting oil's bubble... In a bubble, anything can happen... the best is to stayout...

Exciting week ahead, with oil likely to head down, Dow nearing bear market, with the tagline, "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN", Iran and Israel not helping with the tensions, China not helping with the minimum wages increase.

Other than the above events, the thing to look out for is the ECB rates(4th July if not wrong). Any rate hike is much expected, and is also expected to do much harm to the US economy and USD. Although much should be blamed on the US Fed, not ECB.

I called for ECB to be the leading indicator after much divergences in movement from Fed to show their disagreement in views, ECB now holds the key to the destruction of USD as world's currency. Fed is now being held by the nose as ECB will not agree with Fed and ECB is in control. A lot of talks are now with ECB trying to write down the divergences with Fed, and Fed somewhat agreewith verbally with ECB(refusing to admit mistake) but that will not work as actions will prove otherwise.

Tensions in the currencies between Euro and USD has somewhat reached near breaking point, and ECB is not likely to give way to Fed for inflation. This "can" be the turning point. Lets see.

Hee Teck